Superforecasting

Written By Philip Tetlock
Superforecasting
  • Publsiher : Random House
  • Release : 24 September 2015
  • ISBN : 1448166594
  • Pages : 352 pages
  • Rating : 4/5 from 21 reviews
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Download or read book entitled Superforecasting by author: Philip Tetlock which was release on 24 September 2015 and published by Random House with total page 352 pages . This book available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle Format. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release Date : 2015-09-24
  • Total pages : 352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house ...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release Date : 2015-12-14
  • Total pages : 37
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of ...

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread Summaries
  • Publisher : Idreambooks
  • Release Date : 2016-04-05
  • Total pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2015
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Abstract Reflecting on Tetlock and Gardner's "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters"...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release Date : 2015-12-14
  • Total pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of ...

Superforecasting Or Snafu

Superforecasting Or Snafu
  • Author : David L. Raugh
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2019
  • Total pages : 137
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation ...

Future Babble

Future Babble
  • Author : Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Plume
  • Release Date : 2012-02
  • Total pages : 320
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing ...

The Science of Fear

The Science of Fear
  • Author : Daniel Gardner
  • Publisher : Penguin
  • Release Date : 2009
  • Total pages : 351
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : An analysis of the scientific causes of irrational fear offers insight into the brain's role in causing people to experience and react to fear, in a report that explains how heightened fear in the post-9/11 world is dangerously intersecting with biologically driven responses....

Factfulness

Factfulness
  • Author : Hans Rosling,Ola Rosling,Anna Rosling Rönnlund
  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release Date : 2018-04-03
  • Total pages : 352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : 'One of the most important books I've ever read - an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world' BILL GATES 'A hopeful book about the potential for human progress when we work off facts rather than our inherent biases' BARACK OBAMA The international bestseller, inspiring and revelatory, filled with ...

The Fashion Forecasters

The Fashion Forecasters
  • Author : Regina Lee Blaszczyk,Ben Wubs
  • Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
  • Release Date : 2018-03-08
  • Total pages : 296
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : The fashion business has been collecting and analyzing information about colors, fabrics, silhouettes, and styles since the 18th century - activities that have long been shrouded in mystery. The Fashion Forecasters is the first book to reveal the hidden history of color and trend forecasting and to explore its relevance ...

Identifying Superforecasters in Online Market Research via Advertisement Testing Surveys

Identifying Superforecasters in Online Market Research via Advertisement Testing Surveys
  • Author : Ruhaim Izmeth
  • Publisher : GRIN Verlag
  • Release Date : 2017-06-26
  • Total pages : 28
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2016 in the subject Communications - Public Relations, Advertising, Marketing, Social Media, grade: 3.75, , course: Masters in IT, language: English, abstract: This research is inspired by the result of the works of Professor Tetlock on prediction science in the geopolitical and economics domains. He suggests that ...

The Trend Forecaster s Handbook

The Trend Forecaster s Handbook
  • Author : Martin Raymond
  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release Date : 2019-07-29
  • Total pages : 416
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and strategic foresight. Designed and written as a practical ‘how to’ guide for design, marketing, ...

HBR s 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk with bonus article Managing 21st Century Political Risk by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart

HBR s 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk  with bonus article  Managing 21st Century Political Risk  by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart
  • Author : Harvard Business Review,Robert S. Kaplan,Condoleezza Rice,Philip E. Tetlock,Paul J. H. Schoemaker
  • Publisher : Harvard Business Press
  • Release Date : 2020-05-26
  • Total pages : 192
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future ...

Advances in Active Portfolio Management New Developments in Quantitative Investing

Advances in Active Portfolio Management  New Developments in Quantitative Investing
  • Author : Ronald N. Kahn,Richard C. Grinold
  • Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
  • Release Date : 2019-09-13
  • Total pages : 464
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : From the leading authorities in their field—the newest, most effective tools for avoiding common pitfalls while maximizing profits through active portfolio management Whether you’re a portfolio manager, financial adviser, or investing novice, this important follow-up to the classic guide to active portfolio management delivers everything you need to ...

Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory

Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2006
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Read online Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory written by , published by which was released on 2006. Download full Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....