Description : Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
Description : This book is a practical, step-by-step introduction to microsimulation in demography. It shows how to use Modgen, a powerful and free microsimulation platform built by Statistics Canada. The authors' hands-on explanation of model development will help readers make their own. The book teaches how to create and run a simple cohort model with a single fixed-rate event, and builds upon this concept. It introduces how to develop both a single state life table as well as a multiple increment-decrement life table using the tools provided by Modgen. The authors illustrate how to easily upgrade an existing model by adding new modules and new dimensions as determinants of a risk already modeled. The integration of a fertility module and a base population allows the user to bring new actors into the simulation and transform a cohort-based model into a population-based one. The final addition of an international migration module allows the user to accomplish fully open, multi-regional projections. This accessible introduction will be of interest to researchers and students in population studies and other social sciences. It will also appeal to anyone interested in the computational modeling of population dynamics.
Description : In this thesis two variants of the fast variable elimination method are developed. They are intuitive, simple to implement and give results which are in very good agreement with those found from numerical simulations. The relative simplicity of the techniques makes them ideal for applying to problems featuring demographic stochasticity, for experts and non-experts alike. Within the context of mathematical modelling, fast variable elimination is one of the central tools with which one can simplify a multivariate problem. When used in the context of of deterministic systems, the theory is quite standard, but when stochastic effects are present, it becomes less straightforward to apply. While the introductory and background chapters form an excellent primer to the theory of stochastic population dynamics, the techniques developed can be applied to systems exhibiting a separation of timescales in a variety of fields including population genetics, ecology and epidemiology.
Description : In human populations, biological, social, spatial, ecological and economic aspects of existence are inextricably linked, demanding a holistic approach to their study. Many undergraduate and postgraduate courses now emphasise the value of studying human populations using theoretical frameworks and methodologies from different traditional disciplines. Human Population Dynamics introduces such frameworks and methodologies whilst demonstrating how changes in human population structure can be addressed from several different academic perspectives. As such, the book contains contributions from world-renowned researchers in demography, social and biological anthropology, genetics, biology, sociology, ecology, history and human geography. In particular, the contributors emphasise the lability of many population structures and boundaries, as viewed from their area of expertise. This text is aimed at undergraduate students, graduates and academic researchers from any academic discipline which considers human populations.
Description : Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to readers interested in population the ory. (Readers looking for background or prerequisites will find much of it in Hal Caswell's Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and in terpretation (Sinauer 1989) ). This book is in essence a progress report and is deliberately brief; I hope that it is not mystifying. I have not attempted to be complete about either the history or the subject, although most sig nificant results and methods are presented.
Description : This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d