Description : Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory
Description : This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.
Description : This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.
Description : The world trade of plants and plant products is gradually increasing in both quantity and variety. Also, as more and more citizens are nowadays travelling to distant destinations, there is an increased risk of unintentionally importing harmful organisms and invasive species. Governments respond to increased phytosanitary risks by imposing trade-restricting measures. However, they are under increasing pressure of the private sector and the World Trade Organization to justify costly and trade-restricting phytosanitary policies. On the other side, current phytosanitary policies are required to account for impacts on the environment. This book presents a number of recent scientific developments regarding the economic analysis of impacts that harmful organisms have on agriculture and the environment, and of measures to control these organisms. It also contains a number of new approaches that integrate economic and epidemiological modelling and economic approaches for measuring these impacts.
Description : This book identifies the challenges faced by large electricity consumers when they use several sources to procure their energy. The huge penetration of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewables can put the operations of the large electricity consumer at risk. The book discusses the different types of energy sources including the pool market, bilateral contracts, electrical vehicles, energy storage systems, and demand response programs in detail and presents solutions for robust and risk based scheduling. The author provides models for determining and considering uncertainties and optimal bidding strategies. The book is useful to engineers and students involved in the integration of various energy types as well as those working in state and federal governmental organizations who regulate different aspects of electricity market operation and planning. Presents solutions for robust and risk based scheduling; Discusses the operation and planning of energy storage systems; Presents the most-up-to-date technological approaches to energy integration.
Description : This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Description : Composed of the proceedings of a symposium on engineering geology and the environment, held in Athens in June, 1997, this work provides a survey of trends in engineering geology, and an interdisciplinary collaboration with hydrogeology, geochemistry, geomorphology, and soil and rock mechanics.
Description : This book highlights the cutting-edge research on energy management within smart grids with significant deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV). These vehicles not only can be a significant electrical power consumer during Grid to Vehicle (G2V) charging mode, they can also be smartly utilized as a controlled source of electrical power when they are used in Vehicle to Grid (V2G) operating mode. Electricity Price, Time of Use Tariffs, Quality of Service, Social Welfare as well as electrical parameters of the network are all different criteria considered by the researchers when developing energy management techniques for PEVs. Risk averse stochastic energy hub management, maximizing profits in ancillary service markets, power market bidding strategies for fleets of PEVs, energy management of PEVs in the presence of renewable energy in distribution lines or microgrids and loss minimization in distribution networks based on smart coordination approaches using real time energy prices are some of the attractive and novel topics explored in this book. It will be an excellent reference for graduate students, researchers and industry professionals who are interested in getting a snapshot view of today’s latest research on applying various smart energy management strategies for smart grids with high penetration of PEVs.
Description : Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fi