Description : Uncertainty in Policy Making explores how uncertainty is interpreted and used by policy makers, experts and politicians. It argues that conventional notions of rational, evidence-based policy making - hailed by governments and organisations across the world as the only way to make good policy - is an impossible aim in highly complex and uncertain environments; the blind pursuit of such a 'rational' goal is in fact irrational in a world of competing values and interests. The book centres around two high-profile and important case studies: the Iraq war and climate change policy in the US, UK and Australia. Based on three years' research, including interviews with experts such as Hans Blix, Paul Pillar, and Brian Jones, these two case studies show that the treatment of uncertainty issues in specialist advice is largely determined by how well the advice fits with or contradicts the policy goals and orientation of the policy elite. Instead of allowing the debates to be side-tracked by arguments over whose science or expert advice is 'more right', we must accept that uncertainty in complex issues is unavoidable and recognise the values and interests that lie at the heart of the issues. The book offers a 'hedging' approach which will enable policy makers to manage rather than eliminate uncertainty.
Description : Provides undergraduates in surveying and property professionals with a clear practical explanation of the various management techniques to improve their property development decisions.
Description : Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
Description : Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.
Description : How are questions of scientific uncertainty resolved in disputes among government agencies or between the government and special interest groups? In this provocative examination of decision-making, Klapp shows how regulatory decisions change in vital public areas such as technological safety, environmental quality, and public health. After examining how scientific uncertainty is used by rival government agencies, consumer/industrial groups, Congress, or the courts to attempt to change regulatory decisions, Professor Klapp contrasts the American approach with that used in France and Britain.
Description : "This book will provide property investors and developers with a clear, authoritative and well-illustrated explanation of a range of management techniques to improve their development decisions." Includes information on the Monte Carlo way.
Description : The 21st century promises to be an era dominated by international response to c- tain global environmental challenges such as climate change, depleting biodiversity and biocapacity as well as general atmospheric, water and soil pollution problems. Consequently, Environmental decision making (EDM) is a socially important ?eld of development for Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS). - certainty is an important feature of these decision problems and it intervenes at very different time and space scales. The Handbook on “Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making” provides a guided tour of selected methods and tools that OR/MS offer to deal with these issues. Below, we brie?y introduce, peer reviewed, chapters of this handbook and the topics that are treated by the invited authors. The ?rst chapter is a general introduction to the challenges of environmental decision making, the use of OR/MS techniques and a range of tools that are used to deal with uncertainty in this domain.
Description : The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Description : Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Description : Australia and the United States face very similar challenges in dealing with drought. Both countries cover a range of biophysical conditions, both are federations that provide considerable responsibility to state governments for water and land management, and both face the challenges in balancing rural industry and urban development, especially in relation to the allocation of water. Yet there are critical differences in their approaches to drought science and policy. Drought, Risk Management, and Policy: Decision Making under Uncertainty explores the complex relationship between scientific research and decision making with respect to drought in Australia and the United States. Risk Management, not Crisis Management Drawing on the work of respected academic researchers and policy practitioners, the book discusses the issues associated with decision making under uncertainty and the perspectives, needs, and expectations of scientists, policy makers, and resource users. Starting from the position that drought is a risk to be managed, it considers the implications of the predicted impacts of future climate change. The book also examines the policy responses to these challenges and the role of scientific input into the policy process. Contributors look at drought risk management in action and how end users in the community incorporate drought science into their decision making. The book concludes with lessons learned about science, policy, and managing uncertainty. Get Insight into the Relationship between Science and Policy—and How to Turn That into More Effective Decision Making Throughout, the contributors identify possible reasons for differences in the use and application of drought sciences and approach to policy between the two countries, offering valuable insight into the relationship between scientific advice and the policy process. They also highlight the challenges faced at the science–policy interface. Crossing international borders and disciplinary boundaries, this timely collection tackles drought policy development as part of the broader discussion about climate change. Although the focus is on Australia and the United States, many of the lessons learned are relevant for any country dealing with drought.